Safe Haven

All I can say is that I hope and pray for the people of Japan at this time.  Things are getting dicey at best and this is a disaster that won’t be fixed any time soon.  You are all in our thoughts and prayers for sure.

At this very moment futures on the S&P are down 25 points to 1,266, Dow futures are down 225 and Asian markets are getting hammered.  This is a time that money will/should seek a safe haven – bonds, cash, select commodities and currencies.

But so far, the US Dollar is not being accepted as safe.  See below…

Why is this?  I honestly don’t know, but the Bank of Japan has issued immediate infusions of cash into their economy to buoy the system.  My hunch is that the markets fear the US will soon follow.

If the dollar fails to catch a bid, we will see a quick test of the March lows (76.375) and possibly a swift trip to the November lows of 75.235.  Along with that test will be a resumption of the gold and silver “flight” to safety, which would begin the final push higher into the Spring C wave explosion.

Everyone’s seemingly leaning bearish on the metals up here, but the dollar continues to signal something’s going on to refute that.

This is not going to be easy and will be volatile at best.  But when the dust (and the dollar) settles, I will expect Gold and Silver to be some of the few safe havens out there.

Keep those in Japan in your thoughts and be careful out there.  This is no time to play hero – and cash is a viable strategy at this point.


About thefront9

Independent trader with a flexible approach to the markets. Position trading, swing trading and day trading using Futures, Equities and Options. This site is intended to help others (and myself) see what I see and to stay true to the discipline of making trades at the extremes. Contrarian and TastyTrade addict! Living in Texas with my family, helping others and maybe playing some golf from time to time makes life busy and great. Add a little music and humor and that just about sums it up. Trade the extremes and manage risk.....always!
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