Good morning and Happy Holiday Weekend! I’ll be off next week to a far away destination which will hopefully be cooler than Texas. Should be a good week to decompress and take a step away from the markets.
QE2 is now in the books and it seems like we’re now in another very important window of time. S&Ps are right back up to the 50 DMA and how they act up here will tell us alot about the next move.
See both sides, as always, and be ready for anything. Hell, who really knew we were in for a 4% pop this week? Makes sense now, but it sure didn’t on Monday morning.
What I am watching for now that the month is over is a higher low in the US Dollar and some weakness in metals and stocks. We are right on the early point of a cycle low for the dollar (day 18) so a turn could happen between here and the end of next week.
Currently this AM it looks as though we are “hammering” right below the 50 DMA……
……and Gold is losing the $1,500 level again.
I continue to use the Dollar as the key to this market and to listen to what it is saying. My guess is that, along with the cycle we are in (intermediate up), we will possibly see the debt ceiling vote on August 2 as the area of the next turn.
July in 2009 and 2010 were spectacularly strong months and it seems like a lot of commentary is out there about how great July is going to be again this year. I’m taking the other side of that trade this time around and we’ll see what the market does.
Not short. Just waiting for better prices.
Have a safe and happy 4th of July weekend and trade the extremes always!