More Danny Macaskill brilliance……

Dude has some serious skills.  Enjoy.

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Active Trading Discussion with NY Times Reporter

http://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_recaps/2014-04-29/episodes/140429_weyg

T &T discuss active trading with a reporter who has just written a column about “buy-and-hold” vs. active trading.

Great stuff and a reminder that we all need many occurrences to become “pros”. Most at Tastytrade are more professional than those on Wall Street.

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Tricks on road bikes.  Amazing

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$WFM to $70………What’s the Probability?

Deutsche Bank analyst Karen Short (great name for an analyst!) initiated coverage on Whole Foods Market (WFM) on 9/25 and says the stock will go to $70.  Short gave NO time frame but did say there’s lots of reasons it might go there…like dominance, taking market share, ROIC, etc., etc.

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Sooooo, what are the Facts*?

As of 9/25/2013, WFM was trading for $58.33

  • Probability of closing at/above $70 in 51 days =     2.49%
  • Probability of closing at/above $70 in 114 days =   6.12%
  • Probability of closing at/above $70 in 149 days = 10.32%
  • Probability of closing at/above $70 in 478 days = 22.55%

*Data from Thinkorswim options statistics, 9/25/2013

Trade small, trade often and be informed………. and watch tastytrade!

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Manage Your Losers!!

http://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/MT/episodes/130903_MT

Really interesting look at managing winners and losers this week by Tom and Tony. Would you believe it’s best to get out early rather than let ’em run?

Check it out.

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$AAPL now to $700? What’s the probability Carl Icahn?

Oh boy!!  Carl Icahn said yesterday that Apple could now go back to $700 if certain things happen with the company (NO time frame given).  His Tweet yesterday jacked up the price by $24/share in just a few minutes, but what are the real chances that Uncle C is right?  Something tells me his schtick is getting old…..

aapl

Facts*: 

As of 8/14/2013, AAPL was trading for $497.00

  • Probability of closing at/above $700 in 93 days = 2.13%
  • Probability of closing at/above $700 in 156 days = 2.70%
  • Probability of closing at/above $700 in 247 days = 5.69%
  • Probability of closing at/above $700 in 520 days = 10.25%

*Data from Thinkorswim options statistics, 8/14/2013

Trade small, trade often and be informed………. and watch tastytrade!

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$DDD to $60………What’s the Probability?

Brean Capital analyst Ananda Baruah initiated coverage on 3D Systems on 7/29 and says the stock will go to $60.  Baruah gave NO time frame but did say there’s lots of reasons it might go there…http://bit.ly/14sMLXb

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Facts*: 

As of 7/26/2013, DDD was trading for $47.35

  • Probability of closing at/above $60 in 53 days = 10.4%
  • Probability of closing at/above $60 in 109 days = 17.04%
  • Probability of closing at/above $60 in 172 days = 19.87%
  • Probability of closing at/above $60 in 536 days = 25.26%

*Data from Thinkorswim options statistics, 7/29/2013

Trade small, trade often and be informed………. and watch tastytrade!

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$AAPL to $465………What’s the Probability?

BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman commented on AAPL and raised his target to $450 – $480.  Bachman gave NO time frame but did say his call is for “near term” June and September quarters…   http://bit.ly/1dPPMq7

aapl

Facts*: 

As of 7/22/2013, AAPL was trading for $426.31

  • Probability of closing at/above $465 in 24 days = 10.53%
  • Probability of closing at/above $465 in 59 days = 16.55%
  • Probability of closing at/above $465 in 115 days = 23.02%
  • Probability of closing at/above $465 in 178 days = 25.61%

*Data from Thinkorswim options statistics, 7/22/2013

Trade small, trade often and be informed………. and watch tastytrade!

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$CAVM to $28………What’s the Probability?

Nomura Securities initiated coverage of Cavium Networks on 7/16 with a “reduce”.  Target is $28 with NO time frame.  http://bit.ly/14daL6p

See chart below…..

CAVM

Facts*: 

As of 7/16/2013, CAVM was trading for $36.22

  • Probability of closing at/below $28 in 30 days = 4.66%
  • Probability of closing at/below $28 in 65 days = 13.01%
  • Probability of closing at/below $28 in 156 days = 24.47%
  • Probability of closing at/below $28 in 184 days = 26,40%

*Data from Thinkorswim options statistics, 7/16/2013

Trade small, trade often and be informed………. and watch tastytrade!

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$FDX to $120………What’s the Probability?

Wunderlich Securities initiated coverage of FedEx on 7/12 with a buy.  Target is $120 with NO time frame.  http://bit.ly/11Qh0Ne

Facts*: 

As of 7/12/2013, FDX was trading for $102.29

  • Probability of closing at/above $120 in 32 days = 3.17%
  • Probability of closing at/above $120 in 95 days = 8.82%
  • Probability of closing at/above $120 in 186 days = 14.84%
  • Probability of closing at/above $120 in 550 days = 24.50%

*Data from Thinkorswim options statistics, 7/12/2013

Trade small, trade often and be informed………. and watch tastytrade!

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